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IEEE Spectrum Predicts Winning and Losing Technologies for 2005
3rd January, 2005

NEW YORK, Jan. 3 -- Municipal broadband wireless networking,broadband television from telephone companies, battery-operated cars andmicrochip wafer polishing for more powerful semiconductors have beenidentified by the editors of IEEE Spectrum as "winners" in a new special issuehighlighting the best and worst of global technology.

For the report, the magazine's editors considered more than 50possibilities and selected winners and losers for 2005.

"There are lessons to be learned from both sides of the win/lose equation,including how projects fail even when they start out looking great on paper,and what makes a successful project tick," said Glenn Zorpette, executiveeditor, IEEE Spectrum. "To pick the winning and losing projects, we judgedtheir feasibility and whether or not what they are trying to accomplish isworthwhile."

The results showcased some new and exciting technologies that have thepotential to make major impacts on web surfing, computer use, televisionwatching and automobile driving. The losers included technologies designed tothwart terrorists, improve energy use, help students learn science and protectintellectual property.

IEEE Spectrum's technology winners are:

* Las Vegas's Metro Mesh Network pilot program to create a citywide

broadband mobile wireless technology. This robust and easy-to-deploy

technology will allow the city to serve a wide range of needs, from

emergency responder communications to traffic light management. This

new network is being developed by Cheetah Wireless Technologies,

MeshNetworks and the City of Las Vegas Traffic Engineering Department.

* Electrochemical Mechanical Planarization from Applied Materials, Inc.,

Santa Clara, Calif., whose goal is to make possible the next-generation

of smaller, faster, cheaper microchips.

* Internet-Protocol Television, delivering dozens of channels of video

programming through a relatively low-speed broadband connection (2.2

megabits per second). This technology allows telephone carriers to

compete with cable providers using their legacy copper networks instead

of an expensive optical-fiber upgrade. The technology is under

development in Zurich, Switzerland by Swisscom AG and Microsoft Corp.

* Ultracapacitor Development Project, under way in Yongin, Korea by

NessCap to reduce the cost of ultracapacitors and find new markets for

them. Ultracapacitors are superior to batteries in many respects and

are expected to be used increasingly to improve the performance of

hybrid-electric and fuel-cell cars.

Mr. Zorpette said that the magazine's editors considered specificprojects, not companies or classes of technology. "For winners, the projectmust in some sense be novel; its beneficial social, economic or environmentaloutcomes must outweigh any negatives. The likelihood of the project's successmust be evident from the fact that the project seems clearly poised tocapitalize on clear-cut trends in business, technology, society orgovernment," he said.

This year's losers were selected based on several factors. The technologymust have negative outcomes that outweigh its positives. Its poor chances ofsuccess are evident because the project is at odds with trends in its niche.Or the project's technology didn't work or seems to have a good chance of notworking.

The losers include electronic passports being developed by the U.S.Department of State, among others, to thwart terrorists and the BavarianSolarpark created to partially replace Germany's nuclear and fossil fuel powerplants with homegrown solar power. Additional losers are Digital Aristotlefrom Vulcan, Inc., Seattle, an artificial intelligence project that createselectronic tutors for science students; and AACS (Advanced Access ContentSystem), being developed by IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Panasonic (MatsushitaElectric), Sony, Toshiba, Disney and Warner Bros. Studios, to copy-protectnext-generation DVDs.

To come up with their final lists of winners and losers, the IEEE Spectrumstaff relied heavily on the global resources of the IEEE, a professionalorganization whose members include nearly 400,000 engineers, computer expertsand technologists.

The January 2005 issue of IEEE Spectrum is available by subscription, onmany newsstands throughout the Northeastern United States and online athttp://www.spectrum.ieee.org.

About IEEE Spectrum

IEEE Spectrum is published monthly by IEEE, the world's largestorganization of technology professionals and business leaders. Over 385,000executives, engineers, and computer scientists at the world's largestcompanies and universities look to IEEE Spectrum each month for the latestnews and most accurate information about new important technologydevelopments. IEEE Spectrum readership comprises the largest concentration ofhigh-tech professionals and senior managers of any publication in its niche.IEEE Spectrum also communicates through its Web site, IEEE Spectrum Online(http://www.spectrum.ieee.org). Its content includes numerous news storiesand features beyond those featured in the print magazine.

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